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For the past 8-years, King Dollar has created a series of lower highs along one resistance line. Each time it has hit this line bullish sentiment has reached lofty levels.
Now the US$ is back at this 8-year falling resistance line with bullish sentiment hitting 76%, with in a couple of percent of levels that has reflected Dollar peaks in the past.
For King Dollar to keep moving higher, it has to break above dual resistance at (2) in the chart above. If it can’t break above this resistance, could a US$ decline help the S&P 500 break all the resistance it is facing or will they move together. (Dollar/Stocks Correlation here)
When considering the anomaly of Us stocks and the Us dollar rallying together since 2011, one could take in account that many world markets have actually topped in 2011 (most emerging and european markets), and so did economically sensitive US stocks depending on world growth such as Alcoa and Caterpillar. So, the dollar doesn’t need to fall for US stocks to rallye, it only needs to fall for international stocks to rally, which kind of makes sense.