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The above chart highlights that yields on the 10-year note & 30-year bond are down on average of 17% this year, to the surprise of many. Would rates falling another 20% surprise a few investors? I suspect so!
The Power of the Pattern around Thanksgiving of last year shared that rates were poised for a large decline as Janet was taking over at the Fed. (see post here) The patterns also suggested in January that yields had a 65% chance of falling, pushing bond prices higher (see post here).
In April 100% of economist were predicting interest rates would rise! Looks like this might have been a crowded opinion/trade taking shape!
The 30-year bell weather bond (left chart) has broken below support of its steep rising channel, tested resistance of late and continues to decline. The 10-year yield (right chart) is on support, that is being pushed to its max.
Joe Friday….If the yield on the 10-year note breaks down here, rising channel support comes into play 20% below current yields!
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