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The “No- Brainer” can’t miss trade coming into the first of this year was that interest rates were going to rise. 90 Days ago I shared that bond prices were breaking out, discussed in the “Tell Me About Rising Rates” post (See Here)
I shared with Members numerous charts about a rate high/bond price low at the first of this year. One of the key reasons to establish a long bond position was due to this…Interest rates had the largest 18-month rally in the past 30-years, up 50% more than the seven largest rallies in the past 30-years!
Market watch reported earlier this year that 100% of economist predicted that rates would rise. Wonder how that prediction has worked out? Year to date, TLT is up twice as much as the S&P 500.
The chart above highlights that the yield on the 10-year note has been falling since the first of the year and is now on rising support. IF support breaks, the next key support line comes into play around 15% below current levels.
If yields break support, would they be sending a message about the strength of the global economy? What happens here at support I feel is important to more than just the bond market!