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Interest rates have been falling for nearly three decades. Could the trend of lower rates be over? A big test to this trend is in play right now!

Above looks at 10 & 30-year yields since early 1990’s. Both have remained inside of falling channel (1) for the past 25-years. Both are attempting to break above 25-year resistance and 3-year trading ranges at the same time at each (2).

If both would succeed in breaking out, the next resistance test for the 10-year comes into play at the 3.65% level and the 3.85% for the 30-year. What each does at (2) should have major influences on bond prices going forward and could impact stocks as well.

The last time both tested the top of these channels, stocks were near highs. We will see if it’s different this time.

 

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