Am I Bullish, Bearish or Neither?
I am of the opinion, being Bullish or Bearish are emotional states of mind. They are NOT STRATEGIES. I believe that we should invest in each asset on its own individual merits/patterns, not based upon some global macro prediction.
Did I suggest to buy the 500 index (see post) and become “BULLISH” on 8/29 because the economy was fine? NO! Bought the 500 Index due to these conditions…Bottom of channel support and a falling wedge and by the way, the fewest investors bullish since the March 2009 low. NOTHING MORE!
Did I harvest the S&P 500 position and become “BEARISH” yesterday (see post) , after an 8% gain in three weeks, because something is bad about the economy? NO! Harvested due to Fibonacci resistance at the top of a trading range. NOTHING MORE!
Did I buy Silver a month ago (see post) because something is wrong with the dollar or that inflation is going to go wild or….NOPE! I bought Silver on an upside breakout from a favorable pattern, an ascending triangle . NOTHING MORE! Silver is up over 14% since the purchase.
Why own Emerging Markets or Brazil right now? Falling channel breakouts! (See Post) NOTHING MORE!
Why own High Yield mutual funds? A breakout of a flag pattern and above moving averages (see post) . NOTHING MORE!
Why BUY HOME BUILDERS XHB (see post) when so many people are BEARISH on this industry? Because of rising channel support plus a sizeable falling wedge after a 30% decline. NOTHING MORE! (Current gain of over 12%!)
Will we buy the 500 index and other global markets (see post) on an upside break of these long-term falling channels? YES!!!
My goal is to try to provide solutions, that will help investors “inflate portfolios, regardless of market direction by way of the Power of the Pattern!” I will leave the Bullish or Bearish elements of this business to people much smarter than myself.
I go after favorable trades only. When patterns are in our favor, that is what I target! When a pattern is not there, lets just stay away from it!
A hungry lion, stalks his prey, waiting for the time to attack, under favorable conditions.
I wait for favorable conditions as well.
Are you referring to the software question?
Chris – Thanks for the tip. You might want to put a note on the blog saying that because I’m sure you will be asked about it again.
I was just thinking the other night that you really don’t go after specific trades, but trades that present themselves to you first. As other have said, you are a generous person to share your knowledge and teach us! I have a renewed interest in trading after reading and following your thoughts. Big thanks!!
I have been at this a while!!!
Thanks for the comment,
Chris I hope to become a good t/a trader like you and I love the fact you focus on etfs it is all I buy
Thank you again
Good stuff Chris,
It looks like you are building a community that is in sync with my thoughts.
Take a look at these symbols for a few trading ideas: XLE, XOM, TSO. They are all related and there could be a nugget of a trade in there somewhere.
Keep up the good work!
Good to hear from the international side of the blog. About 40% of the viewers are from outside the states, with the largest concentration from Europe.
If you want to see the viewers, on the right side of the blog below “who is on line” click map of visitors.
Dan I am honored and humbled by what you shared and appreciate all the global viewers.
All the best,
I use the software program called Metastock from Equis. I have owned it since the mid 1990’s. LOVE IT!!!
If you would like to talk to someone about the product, the professional rep I have been in contact for years is David Derricott.
He can be reached at David.Derricott@thomsonreuters.com
International is 001.801.270.3112
Great guy, easy to talk with and very knowledgible.
Tell David you know me Doug (or anyone else) and I suspect he will pass along a small discount compared to the web price.
compliments from Italy for you wonderful patterns!
After harvesting the S&P profits do you see anything going on in the other markets?
Thank you for sharing your knowledge.
Chris – What charting software do you use? Love the blog and read it every day.
I had come to the conclusion that technical analysis was a lot like astrology, in that the successes were mainly due to the fact that enough people followed it to be self-confirming. Imagine 10% of traders used astrology, when told to buy, they buy and prices rise. To them, that would “prove” astrology was a sound method of investing.
But you’ve convinced me otherwise. The keys would seem to be that you need to be categorically dispassionate about all else, and be willing to look through a lot of data to find the gems.
Theoretically, the visual patterns could be ascertained by crunching the numbers with the right algorithms and the process could be automated, but they might be pretty complex algorithms.
I’ve found your blog to be as intellectually stimulating as financially, in that it’s made me rethink a lot of assumptions. Thanks again!
Thank you Chris,
I have been following your posts since Doug Short first started posting them. Really great stuff. Thanks for sharing your work with us.
Ride em cowboy!!!!! Yeeeeeee—–Haaaaaaaw
You are welcome and Thank You Louis for this comment.
Solutions are available for the times we are in…I hope I can be one of those for people around the globe!
Great job, Chris! And THANK YOU VERY MUCH for sharing it trough your blog!
Typo goof on my part…
I meant to say…”Look at patterns first and what the product is last!”
You are spot on, per what I attempt to do…I hunt, search and screen for patterns that are favorable for us. I WILL NOT FORCE a pattern…it is either favorable or I leave it alone!
How many charts do I look at? TONS and TONS!!!
I do this Bob…look at hundreds of charts for patterns, after I see a pattern I like, I find out WHAT IT IS I AM LOOKING AT!
I don’t look at “patterns first” and what the product is last!!!
Check out the archives on the blog and you can start to get a feel for what all I look at!
Clearly you are very good at detecting short-term patterns that are worth betting on. It seems to me, your success, as compared to other technical analysts, is that you look for patterns among a wide group of indices/commodities, etc., and ignore those that you don’t see a pattern.
While the average technical analyst concentrates on particular indices, always trying to make a determination even when there is no strong pattern. So he feels obliged to give a call on SPX just because it’s what everyone asks for. But you are willing to just ignore it until a pattern presents itself. Does that seem accurate?
How many different charts are you tracking at any one time?