Sir John Templeton used to share that the four most dangerous words in investing are…”it’s different this time.” Is it different this time??? From a pattern perspective, some things are different looking this time, at the top of the trading range.
Posted to go long the first of this month at the bottom of the trading range. I have NOT SAID TO HARVEST at the top of the range, just suggested to keep stops tight! The highly bearish rising wedge pattern that took place twice at the top of the trading range, so far is absent!!!
Stay tuned…. I will keep informing on this important pattern situation.
Thanks for the comment and great point. The top of the trading range does fit as a neckline. In the “ground hog” series of charts I highlighted the inverse head and shoulders that your correctly are bringing up!
In the firts post this morning,(global same trend) what happens at the top line of the falling trading range (almost a three year line), is more important than the neckline, of a 100 day pattern.
Just wondering why you don’t mention the obvious and perfect head & shoulders formation with a breach of the neckline. Not many technicians are talking about it. I’m not a not a big fan of H&S patterns, but this one seems textbook in its formation.
The index made a triple bottom in a short term time frame on support, since that time, it has been straight up in a narrow channel. My point of todays chart, was that it should break the top of the range, due to a lack of rising wedge.
Chris…why is the current pattern different? It seems it could easily be a rising wedge pattern like the previous two by drawing a line from about Aug 16 to today. No?
Thank you for the viewership and comments.
The patterns do work on stocks as well as commodities.
Do these chart patterns work with individual stocks as well as ETF’s, indexes?
As many have said this information you’re providing is invaluable.
Thank you very much.
Breakouts all over…snowflakes of higher prices started in the high yields, then Chile’s of the world, next EEM/EWZ. Trucking and rails too… TLT breaks down… any of these negatives?
Trampoline effect…high correlation in both directions, needs to be excepted.
Sept 1 wasn’t a break, just a positive pattern on support. Breaks, IMO, take place when resistance is taken out.
EPI started acting nice at the same time EEM/EWZ broke falling resistance. EPI is acting well, breaking resistance. We sold Chile and bought EEM at the same time, kind of a replace position.
Hope all is well Mark, Thx for the comments,
Wow, it seems that they’re all tracking so tightly – S&P, emerging, REITs… one seems to be breaking out, one seems to be stalling… though as of now it seems that all 3 have broken out (REITs broke its neck to day, didn’t it?).
Also, it seems that one needs to jump on these breaks immediately… at least the Sept 1 break happened very quickly.
BTW, do you have any thought on EPI? Another emerging market that seems to have a massive breakout (for those of us who missed Chile)? Or is that crazy?
Thank you for the kind words…They are appreciated!
Have work long and hard to develop what I do. Hope to create value and a little fun along the way.
The charting sofware I use is called Metastock. Used it since the mid-1990’s.
Great contributions Chris. I really enjoy reading your submissions daily. Very simple, yet EXTREMELY elegant.
Really quite wonderful.
One easy question – what software are you using to draw your supports and resistance lines over such long timeframes?
TLT…looks to have broken support off the April lows…could very well test the underside of this line.
Great posts, Chris. By the way, any updates coming on TLT?