The chart below was the August 18th quiz on dshort.com, (see post). Reflecting a “crossroads” of resistance in the bond ETF (TLT). Today CNBC is all over sentiment numbers for equities, in that the number of bulls has increased. Speaking of a large number of bulls….On the same day as the quiz, according to the Daily Sentiment Index (trade-futures.com) bonds bulls stood at 98%! Can you say “crowded trade!!!”
I produced the chart above to encourage investors to “harvest against strong resistance, when sentiment was out of sight!” As many of you have seen, I believe in harvesting at resistance! The chart below, posted on 8/29, suggested that bonds were at a “peak in elevation” (see post) and for those wanting to score on defense, pick up TBF.
Below is a current snapshot on TLT…which is breaking another key support line, reflecting an unwinding from the 98% bullish position.
For those of you that shared you harvested bonds, great job, since TLT is down over 5% since the 8/29 post. For those scoring on defense (TBF), the break in the support line is a plus. Use line (1) as your new sell stop for TBF, to protect recent gains.