In the hit TV show “Laugh In” the host Rowan and Martin would give away the “fickle finger of fate” award. This award crossed my mind as I looked back over the past 5 months, to the first of June.
At that time…The Euro was tanking, PIGS countries (see PIGS info) were going to bring the world down, Greece had massive troubles, rumors of the Euro splitting apart became popular, U.S. Dollar was the “safe haven” currency, hitting multi-month highs and the TALK OF DEFLATION, was all over the media! Can you believe that was just 5 months ago!!! Do you recall how you FELT at the time?
I suggested at that time, we were at “EXTREMES” and it was time to “Short the Dollar and Long the Euro!” (see post here) Shortly after the Extreme posting, I did a post, per writing a letter to Santa, asking him for “INFLATON!” Why ask Santa for inflation? We needed some because the economy was looking very soft at the time and commodities (base metals/copper/grains) were heading south rapidly!!! I created a chart showing how rates were falling and so were base metals! (see DEAR SANTA here) .
What a shift in the past 5 months…The Euro didn’t disappear, actually it has rallied, Dollar isn’t a safe haven at the moment as it has declined over 15% and a base metals ETF (DBB) is up almost 20%!
Do we live in “fickle times” or are “investors fickle” in that they have a hard time “Spotting Extremes” in the markets? Is the world really that different today, than it was 5 months ago? I doubt it….I do believe that today is very similar to 5 months ago though….in that “Extremes” are back in place and opportunities are at hand!