Real Estate ETF Breakout… by Chris Kimble | Oct 21, 2010 | Kimble Charting REIT ETF (IYR) is breaking out from a bullish ascending triangle pattern. Game Plan…Buy the REIT with a 3% downside stop. I will update this chart soon. 16 Comments Chris Kimble on 10/27/2010 at 11:08 AM Thank you Louis…Don’t like the broad market price action for a couple of weeks, that is why I harvest a ton of positions early last week. As I have shared, I feel no pressure to dance all the time (have positions long or short) and love harvesting up against resistance and letting prices be what they may. Small country etf’s (see what is hot post of last friday) price action isn’t looking too good…glad to have “pocket changed” those positions too… See TUR today? ouch Thank you for your kind words and viewership. I don’t like it, yet I know I will be “wrong at least a third of the time,” no matter how hard I work, yet I also am comfortable with “not being WRONG FOR LONG!” Louis on 10/27/2010 at 10:56 AM Bought at 56.64… My stop is at 54.85… Currently 55.11… Bad luck here… but who knows what will happen in the next few days… Anayway, GREAT WORK Chris!!! Your blog really rocks!!! Jeff on 10/27/2010 at 10:08 AM IYR seems to be breaking down to the May level. While past resistance becomes support, should I hold on to this one and give support a chance to hold? Or should I dump this? Or should I just keep my stop at 54.50? Best Regards as Always, Jeff Chris Kimble on 10/27/2010 at 9:27 AM Marco, Keep the stop that I suggested or pull the position right now. This was the only long I have suggested in a while, due to the position of the dollar. Thank you for the kind words! I appreciate your viewership, Chris Marco on 10/27/2010 at 9:15 AM First of all I must to say this is the best site I follow, thanks Chris. I bought this ETF when this post comes online, but all positive houses related data we seen during last few days seems not to help IYR. Could you please update this chart. Rob on 10/24/2010 at 7:39 PM Can anyone explain to me why REITs have done so well when the commercial RE market is supposed to be in the tank? Greg on 10/22/2010 at 3:11 PM The non normalcy of price is what lends patterns their normalcy. cK on 10/22/2010 at 1:41 PM Looking at a 5-day candlestick chart for IYR, the ETF looked pretty weak on Tuesday, especially in the PM, then bounced on weds from 55 to 56.50 (on relatively elevated volume), and has looked somewhat weak on Thursday and Friday (overall downtrend). The above is only a very short-term pattern observation, but on Weds was the so-called POMO purchase – my understanding is that this “injects” liquidity into the market via the purchase of treasuries, which then boosts stock prices. The price pattern sort of looks like a dying patient getting injected with adrenaline and having it slowly wear off. Makes me wonder how this sort of thing could affect (distort) otherwise normal price patterns. Chris Kimble on 10/21/2010 at 8:31 PM Mark, Yes you could draw the line you mentioned! I chose the two points to start drawing the pattern, because they are touching the top and bottom of the larger rising channel. Also notice this could be an inverse head and shoulders pattern with the top line I drew as a possible neckline. Anything is possible and what you said is one possiblity. For sure I will be wrong at least a third of the time, just comfortable I won’t be wrong for long. Mark S. on 10/21/2010 at 8:20 PM Looking at this graph – could you not also draw a line through the July, August, September and October (current) highs? And would that not look like a ‘rising wedge’ in combination with your lower line? I was just looking at this and wondering whether it was a wedge or a breakout… hope you are right. Chris Kimble on 10/21/2010 at 7:50 PM Thanks KY… In my 30-years in the investment business, I have never been more excited in what all of us can accomplish with the tools available and the circumstances we have in front of us. Solutions and Abundance! These are exciting times!!! KY on 10/21/2010 at 7:35 PM There is nothing better to start off the day than a Krispy Kreme donut and a fresh Chris Kimble chart!! Seriously though, your posts are so fun and interesting to read throughout the day. thanks. Chris Kimble on 10/21/2010 at 7:16 PM TA, Many bearish “UPSIDE WICKS” today, created when the Dow was up 100 and fell back. If a person is long, not the best situation to see (upside wick) when testing key 61% fib retracement levels. Have a tight stop on IYR in case of what you mentioned per the 9/20 situation or the wicks are an issue. Am honored and humbled to have you viewing the blog daily. I am getting up at 4:30 a.m. so I can have “Krispy Kreme fresh” charts, for people like you each morning. TA on 10/21/2010 at 6:57 PM Hello Chris, There was a head fake in IYR on Sept 20th and 21th. EOD action today looks similar. What kind of confirmation, if any, should we wait for? Thanks! Yours is the first blog I look at everyday. Keep up the good work! Chris Kimble on 10/21/2010 at 10:16 AM Mike…You can do as you wish. My idea is to pick it up when the post goes up, if possible. The fairly tight stop should protect us if the market does a quick about face. mike barker on 10/21/2010 at 9:52 AM Chris…when you recommend a buy, should I buy right now or wait until the end of the day? Or should I wait until a dip?