Are the markets being held hostage by….The Election? QE2 News? Fibonacci Resistance? Power of the Pattern? Do they need a hero like “Dudley (BEN) Do-Right” to come along and save us?
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The markets have been fairly quiet the past couple of weeks. Are they being held hostage to certain news events? Will one of the above mentioned events finally cause a breakout from the quiet action of late? I suspect it will.
Harvested gains couple of weeks ago (see post here) and am attempting to be a patient grasshopper (see post here) as these patterns resolve themselves. I suspect this might be boring to many people, yet I am comfortable with this since “Risk Management” is so key to short and long-term success….. I am not attempting to hit a home run or be a hero. Just wanting to hit singles, create more pocket-change (see post here) and “inflate portfolios regardless of market direction!”
Resistance is resistance until broken. Glad to have a ton of cash right now with these type of patterns in place, yet if a breakout takes place…..I will BUY THE BREAKOUT!
That should have been “attention” not intention…
The Russell just went negative, and there seem to be a lot upside wicks. Talk about sell the news.
There didn’t seem to be pronounced upside wicks at the April top. Or am I not reading this right?
“Snowflakes of price strength” …you didn’t tell us you were a poet as well.
I saw that with the dollar too. One thing that hasn’t received a lot of intention is that while rates on Treasuries/Bunds are higher than a few weeks ago, the rate on PIIGS debt have moved disproportionately higher. Being short the when it is such a crowded trade would be incredibly ugly if there were even a minor debt scare.
With 3% Dollar bulls and 90% Euro bulls…to uncrowded/crowded for this conservative guy to short the dollar here.
I did short it months ago though! See “Fickle Finger of Faith” post
NDX reflecting relative “weakness” today…That is interesting.
Yeah, i’m not sure that i understand the mechanics (P/L ratio) of shorting the USD at this level/being aggressive on hard commodities. Speaking of weak sisters, anyone else been following MSFT recently?
William…notice anything else, like the Dollar was down almost a half a percent earlier in the day and now it is in the Green!
That could get interesting if it causes a sizeable upside wick up here.
NDX is the weak sister, compared to the Dow, 500 and Russell today, that hasn’t been the case of late.
ok….so now the vix is down and behaving appropriately and going down. haha. so much for my conspiracy theory on today’s action so far….
On 10/25, a sizeable upside wick took place, that was the day the Dow was up over 100 points and closed up around 30.
The market would have to be much lower than current prices (Dow is up 112 right now) for an upside wick to take place.
If a series of upside wicks were to take place up against resistance, that would be a negative for sure, yet at this time, that has not happened.
Chris, if the market closes less positive than where it is now, would you be seeing any upside wicks here?
William,..good observation. With the election tomorrow, think some are hedging a surprise?
Snowflakes of price strength…Railroads and Trucking continue to push higher, breaking above their April highs, high yield funds continue to act well too.
Strength like this has me ok playing a game of prove it, uncomfortable with across the board “attempting to score on defense!”
Not enough cracks in the foundation right now.
anyone else notice the VIX is up and the market is up? hmm…i’m not really sure what that means other than I’m not adding any new money in this market today.
Indeed Chris, let’s wait for a breakout…
In the meantime, let’s enjoy life!