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The day is far from over, yet the Dow looks to be creating another “bearish upside wick” today, almost looks like the pattern on 10/25. These wicks are taking place at the same level as the peak back on 4/26, right at the Fibonacci 61% retracement level.
Does this mean the market will go down? NOPE!!! It does reflect that “SELLERS” are stepping in at key resistance!!! Get enough sellers or people harvesting and sometimes prices can go down!
A question about TB&M please. I understand tops and bottoms but can you further explain “No Middles”? Thanks
Thanks for sharing Gary H!
T1
Members site will look like the blog. I will produce research at least 15 times a week,5 days a week on a wide variety of assets.
Many sites give a two week trial. I gave trades away for 8 months so investors could see how well it works in a variety of market conditions and with a varity of asset classes.
Chris
Insider Selling Volume at Highest Level Ever Tracked
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39850796
Hi Chris,
Your last comment said that your new site will be members only. Are you making it a private paid site? Thanks.
KY,
First off…can’t stand the spammers either…my web designer has added a filter, yet it doesn’t catch them all and they remain a pain! I delete a ton of them that you don’t see, yet still there. Sorry for this everyone. Soooo many times I have thought about stopping the comments all together, because of the spam.
I will be starting a website in the next few weeks, I doubt that the spammers will find there way into the sight, it will be for members only. This way KY, I believe comments will be easier to follow, less noise.
I like moving averages, they are far from broke, use them in private research I sell to institutions…LOVE TB&M though!!!! I have shared TB&M daily since the first of March on dshort and now the blog. I believe in the movie “field of dreams!” Build it, (help people) and they will come! That is what Sir John Templeton did and challenged me to do the same!
I have been doing this for 30 years, yet have never been more excited for all of us! As I have shared before…I didn’t name my company Kimble Charting “PROBLEMS’!!! It is all about “SOLUTIONS!” With the tools available these days, the opportunites have never been greater!
Appreciate you viewership and contributions KY!
yeah, thanks for the great discussion everyone. i was wondering myself how the Ivy/Moving Ave. strategy fit into Kimble’s posts. thanks for fleshing out the strengths/weaknesses of each strategy.
Mr. Kimble, i find the comments section very educational, but hard to efficiently follow new comments. Can you set up a single RSS feed for all comments? Or maybe setup an email subscription for posts and comments so it can be pushed to our inbox.
Also, can you permanently ban the spammers?
Bob,
Ironic you bring up Ivy…I believe in moving averages, converted my entire financial planning practice over to them in 2000. They helped me protect investors in the 2000-03 decline an score on defense as well. I remain a huge believer. All strategies have a weakness! The weakness of moving averages as you mentioned is a flat/choppy environment.
With that in mind I created what you see Bob on the blog, which I call TB&M, which stands for Tops, Bottoms and NO Middles. It address the major challenges of MA strategies. Ivy is a “middle ground” strategy…TB&M deals really well with turning points and can deal with middle ground too.
As tough as 2010 has been for MA strategies and IVY, it has been a blessing for TB&M, with gains into the low triple digits.
I still believe and use moving averages daily, so don’t get me wrong per not liking them…because I do…where does my daily passion live daiy? Well you see it on the blog…TB&M!!!
Give me movement, give me “trade the range” give me confusion…the “Power of the Pattern” loves it!
Thanks Bob for you continued enhancement to this blog,
Chris
Chris,
I was thinking about your system versus the Ivy portfolio strategy Doug Short highlight’s on his site, which basically buys and sells based on a 10 month moving average.
The Ivy strategy worked well in 2007-9, but this year it had you in and out of the S&P500 several times, in during August, out in September, than back in in October.
I wonder if we are entering a period like the latter halves of the 1930s and 1970s bear markets? They had the sharp sell-offs like we went through in 2008/9, but then the market drifted up and down. In both those periods the indexes seem to have just bounced around, but in fact inflation was fairly high. from 1940-1949 the DOW generally rose, but at maybe a third of the inflation rate.
Anyways, my thinking is that for this part of the bear market, your method is about the best. There is unlikely to be anything like the fall of 2008 again, but one way or another we will get to the rich valuations of a bear market bottom. At least that’s my take.
Hey guys,
Not that I want to get people fearful, but in case you haven’t heard this audio track from the Flash Crash then it’s worth a moment. Make sure to get out through the first 3:30 of it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96R05OsJHJ4
I remember hearing a bit on Bloomberg one afternoon, but not till recently could I find it on youtube.
Hey Grasshopper…
Wick ended up being fairly big today. Russell down almost 1%, breaking support line.
Couple of wicks confirm people are willing to sell up against resistance…will take some time to see where this goes.
Summation index on the NYSE is starting a slow rollover. check out $NYSI on stock charts
Reminder to look at the double head and shoulder.. is the dow at another head top. As said the charts tells it all… The double candle…rolling over..and away we go..
I wish not, that i have egg on my face for the day after halloween
I’m cheering on the roll over…thanks for showing the latest chart.
Respectly…ds..
dj06482
I don’t know which is more scary….these wicks or the mask I wore for Halloween this weekend.
The mask is the one I have worn every day of the year for the past 53 years! I told people I was attempting to look like Uncle Fibonacci at resistance, but no one bought it!
They just knew it was scary ole me!
I was literally just thinking the same thing, so I hopped over to my Stocks/Economics Google page full of RSS feeds. Sure enough, Chris, you were already on top of it. It’ll be interesting to see where things go from here. I was expecting some big intraday swings this week, looks like today fits that pattern.
dkyro…up against falling channel resistance, heading slightly lower.
Euro/Yen has a fairly large upside wick today…Hmmm
EUR/JPY telling us anything?