I posted a quiz on 11/11, asking what would you do with the chart below (see post here) Actually the chart was the U.S. Dollar, turned UPSIDE down. At that time roughly 5% of investors were bullish the Dollar and the Dollar was testing STRONG SUPPORT!
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
Since the first of November the Dollar has rallied nicely and the 500 index is up a small percentage. How have the BRIC countries performed in the last 30 days? See below for an update…
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
As you can see from the above 5-pack, Emerging markets pretty much peaked at the same time the Dollar was hitting key support. This is an example of why it becomes so important for us to get the currency moves correct, due to the ripple effect into other asset classes!
I have receive numerous emails asking why I haven’t suggested to own the Emerging markets ETF’s. The reason that I didn’t have much interest in them over the past 5 weeks was due to the top chart, per the U.S. Dollar was at support and way too out of favor.
Key potential pattern in EEM above…watch it closely!!!
Belsha… Depends on the dollar, yet I don’t see them in big trouble at this time. Still like my ole favorite “chile is hot!” ECH has held up really well compared to some of the bric etfs.
Do you think that once again emerging markets are an “early bird” (like at the end of august but in the opposite direction)?
Alpha…Thank you for the kind comments. Per the currency, I will do that next week.
Chris,
I’m new of technical analysis but your blog is so clear that is a pleasure to read it!
Also I would be grateful if you extend your analysis on the Usd against major currencies, particularly against Euro.
Thank you for sharing your wonderful work!
Sam…was Central. Currently the clock is EST, post day light savings time. It will be changed back to reflect central time over the holidays. Thanks for asking. Will do a dollar post soon. Thanks for asking about the post time Sam!
Hi kimble,
The date/time that show up on your blogs are EST or CST ? Good call on the brics. Since currencies are important as you say, can you please do a post on USD index and some major currencies like Euro, JPY, AUD ? If china hikes rates this weekend, we could see good moves on the currencies.
Thanks.