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Support dating back to 2008 is still at hand for the Dollar and sentiment is very lopsided to the bearish side, only around 5% Dollar bulls. Should this support line give way and history is any guide, the precious metals complex would be a beneficiary!
Thanks Chris
Doug…Whether the Dollar breaks down or not, I do like the potential in scoring on defense in Crude right now by owning DTO. This is an uncrowded trade, yet I do like the huge upside wick at wedge and fibonacci resistance.
Thanks Chris. Yep there could be some good opportunities across a lot of commodities if the dollar breaks down hard.
Thanks for that SMN suggestion last week. I earned some nice ‘pocket change’ on it.
Doug
Doug…Yes I do feel sentiment is very important, especially when support is in play like in the Dollar.
In the post/link below, the 500 index was at the bottom of a sideways channel, had created a series of bullish wicks and bulls had all but left the game. At that time the fewest number of investors were bullish the stock market since the low in March of 2009…This is why I suggested to take the “uncrowded trade” and buy stocks at the time…Just happened to be a couple from the low as the Dow is up a couple of thousand points since that date.
https://www.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2010/08/euroyen-signaling-higher-stock-prices-ahead-in-the-short-term/
Sentiment favors support will hold! We do though have to remain open and have a game plan in case support gives way!
Chris – Do you give any consideration that extreme sentiment such as 5% dollar bulls indicates that a reversal is likely? Is that kind of indicator something that is in how you analyze a position?
doug