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The “Power of the Pattern” suggest that TLT had a 65% chance of falling in price.
For those that harvested at the top of a rising wedge or decided to short TLT at the top of the pattern where it met Fibonacci resistiance….rewards are taking place very quickly now that the breakdown from the pattern is taking place.
See Richard Nixon waving “GOOD-BYE” to high Governent bond prices a couple of weeks ago.…(see post here)
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TBT has done fairly well since the this wave good-bye…
SP….good eyes and very possible! Thanks for the comment,
Chris
Hey Denis… if we play the historical correlation game…rates up, stocks up too! I am not into this game, yet one has to respect it…or at least I do! Investors have become so bearish of late, it actually shocks me. 500 index is down 7% from the highs, which is nothing and the put to call ratio hits the same levels as October of 2008…..that was a time when the financial world was for sure in question! AAII and investors intelligence reflects very few bulls. In the past markets have been closer to lows than highs in this situation.
https://www.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2011/06/a-key-fork-in-the-road-for-bonds-and-stocks-at-hand/
Chris, in reviewing it chart it also looks like a potential head and shoulders pattern set up as well.
So Chris as the tlt goes down.. should the s&p go down at the same time, or along with as it did in 2008?
tks..
denis
really appreciate you sharing these treasury charts with us. Not often in the past have I used bonds or treasuries for quick gains! Thanks Chris!