While in Loveland Colorado just short of a year ago, the chart below was produced, reflecting that Government Bond ETF (TLT) seemed to be at “PEAK ELEVATION/A PEAK” in prices and the “Power of the Pattern“ was suggesting to harvest long bond positions/if aggressive establish short bond positions. (See post here)


Now its a year later, I am in Boston enjoying looking back on American history… Speaking of looking back, TLT finds itself looking much the same, as it did a year ago.


Fibonacci 61% has to be respected, especially since TLT created one of the largest bearish wicks in years at (2) yesterday. Two prior times in the past two years, TLT has run out of gas around these levels and if long, investors will want to look into harvesting “some” long bond positions here and place a protective stop on the rest of the holdings.

Long bond sentiment is very high, above 90% bulls….similar sentiment reading to a year ago!  Humbly I  am respecting that TLT could bust through its 61% level and I would not suggest shorting bonds until support is taken out.  If a support break takes place, that is where I will pick up TBT. 

Should TLT succeed on an upside breakout, I suspect most of you know what that would mean for the stock market! 

How The Recent Decline In Stocks Looks "Eerily" Like Major Bear Markets Of The Past