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The U.S. Dollar has been pretty much absent from the headlines of late, due to lack of movement and other products grabbing the spotlight, such as Golds decline this week. The Dollar continues to find line (1) to be very stiff resistance over the past year and has made several failed attempts over the past few months to “close above this line, on a weekly basis!“
The Dollar is getting trapped between support line (3) and resistance line (1). Not sure what will break the Dollar from its multi-month go no-where pattern, yet remain of the opinion that if the Dollar does succeed in closing above line (1), I will want to own the breakout.
About the time a key asset/product becomes boring and overlooked, is when it is close to a big move….be ready to follow a breakout if it takes place!!!
I’m thinking Sept. 7 will be the catalyst for a dollar rally, if the German court rules against more bailouts. The ensuing failout will give the “Bernankster” an excuse for more plundering.
Looks like the Dollar is going to “fail again” per closing above line(1)…on a weekly closing basis!
David….if wanting to long the Dollar and you don’t want to use futures….UUP is about as good as it gets…not ideal, yet if the Dollar does rally, so will UUP.
Thanks David for the question.
Chris
I have the same question as Andrew: what is the best ETF with which to trade the dollar?
Agreed dollar “should” rally yet given every opportunity on multiple occasions, it just doesn’t seem it can find any traction to strengthen.
Perhaps if Bernank brings little or nothing to the QE party tomorrow, would seem a slowdown or recession is likely and if Americans buy fewer imports means fewer dollars going out and ultimately could cause the dollar strength so few expect. Lots of if’s and seems quite contrary to what the administration and Fed desire. Is this what gold is predicting?
However, on the contrary if Fed does bring new QE could send the dollar back to retest 2008 lows and begin rebuilding that gold and silver Eifel tower?
Whats best way to own the dollar? UUP? It looks like dollar breakout would be very bad for stocks.