I am not a Bull nor a Bear…just attempting in these unique times to provide research that can “assist investors to enlarge their portfolios regardless of market direction.”
Below is a pattern that looks to have influenced the S&P 500 to rally at least 20% in a few months, 5 different times in the past 10 years. The condition did not always mean a long-term low was in place, yet it did provide/create a situation that investors could pick up some extra pocket change along the way or reduce short exposure if that was the position at hand.
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
The high fear level does provide a place that aggressive investors can step forward and go long with a stop below support at (2)!
A year ago bonds were at a peak (see post here) and stocks were at a low and the “Power of the Pattern“ found that a unique currency/sentiment situation was at hand that was suggesting to go long stocks and the patterns seemed to suggest the size of the rally would surprise many investors (see post here)
The Franc/ (see post here) situation and the VIX could well be suggesting at least, another short-term surprise like last year is very closet at hand!
Greg….with fund flows into GLD the highest in the past 4 years, it should pay to be patient in here.
You are correct that the broad market needs the banks….
the link below pegged the high one day before the top…with the neckling broken on the H&S pattern, rallies should be viewed as counter trend.
https://www.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2011/08/making-sausage-making-new-laws-and-wilshire-5000-update/
Hi Chris,
Would you wait for GLD to get closer to 1800 before investing in GLL?
Thanks as always, Greg
Concerns me that BKX is a leading indicator of credit and overall market direction…if financials are sneezing, is market likely to get a cold? Patterns are good to follow but always have to be aware of non-confirmation.
Any idea if any previous rebounds been coincident w/ a drop of the BKX?
Hambone…. even if you put lipstick on a pig, its still a pig! I agree with you, that the BKX does not look pretty!
Chris – not trying to be argumentative (pattern is what it is) but I really don’t like what BKX is telling me…not saying risk on??? Thoughts?
Michael…due to the huge standard deviation of XIV and it up against resistance, this is one ETF that I expand my stops a great, great deal….more than any ETF position I ever take.
Chris, Where have you set your stops and limits on XIV?
Best,Michael
Farok…. Premium members at this time are long risk and short safety, due to what appears to be an excess in Fear. Keep in mind inverse VIX etf’s are available for those that don’t want to play options.
https://www.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2011/08/what-does-panicfear-look-like/
T-bonds, Franc and Gold are so-called “Safe havens” I find it interesting that all three of them “BROKE RISING SUPPORT” at the same time….being yesterday!
If you would like info per Premium Membership, please email me at [email protected] and in the subject line out “Premium Membership Info Request” and I will send you further details.
Thanks for your viewership and this great question.
Aaron….Did harvest GLD and Premium members picked up GLL due to channel resistance and fund flows into GLD.
Hi Chris,
I am glad you agree.I bought TBF yesterday and some option spreads (50/55) on Monday.
Have you closed your Gold position? Bought GLD at $144. Locking in profits may be a good thing
Is $1900 in the cards?
Thanks,
Aaron
The old adage says,”When the VIX is high, Its time to BUY”.However Option Premiums are very expensive. Would you sell puts at this level with a December Time Horizon?????
Please also send me a link to your premium membership. Thanks
Farok
Aaron….yes Sir. Premium members picked up XIV due to the VIX chart in the link below.
https://www.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2011/08/what-does-panicfear-look-like/
With the Franc, Gold and TLT breaking support on the “SAME DAY” patterns suggest a trend change is at hand!
Hi Chris,
Would you consider picking up some TBF and/or XIV at these levels?
Thanks,
Aaron