Shared the chart below with members 3 days ago and on dshort (see post here). How does one define a Crash/Wreck? Does a 50% decline in 5 months qualify? Close enough in my book!
Certain patterns took place in 2007/2008 that led to a “Commodity Crash/Wreck” as the CRX Commodity index declined over 50% from May 2008 to October of 2008.
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I have enjoyed and benefited from the “Power of the Pattern” for the majority of my 31 years in this business. Do know that I gave up a long time ago, attempting to say why these patterns do what they do. I believe the patterns represent “fear and greed,” which are the two driving forces that cause people to make decisions….that is good enough for me! Are things/events/economic conditions the same in 2011 as they were in 2008? No!!! No two time periods are exactly the same…yet can patterns repeat? Yup!!!
Are the patterns in the CRX/Dollar acting the same of late as they did in 2008? I will let you be the judge. My goal is to provide research that can assist investors “to enlarge portfolios regardless of market direction, by using the Power of the Pattern.”
A good friend of mine that has been receiving my noise since the late 1990’s calls the “Power of the Pattern” his 28-second advantage. He shares that he can see what should be done and why in less than 28 seconds. The Power of the Pattern called for a repeating “Great Escape” to start back in May (see post here).
These patterns suggested clear back in May, to protect capital and so far nothing has changed. Let the pattern help you with future pricing, not invest in a reactionary/rear view mirror process.
To me its not about being right (the reasons something is happening), its about making money! Don’t take your eyesoff this pattern and the situation in the Shanghai index! (See post here)
Hi Chris, once again, thanks for the great work on putting out a great side-by-side chart of S&P and Commodities. I truly appreciate the power of pattern, I guess we shall see if this pattern does follow through.
Uncanny really. Even more than fear and greed these ebbs and flows and turning points are triggered by people’s decisions…looks like “Merkozy” et al. will make the wrong decision soon…and crash the Western stock markets…wow.
Bounce maybe but JJC will just flop over and die if China crashes or at least goes from say GDP of 9ish to GDP of 5. 5 souunds awesome for us dragging at below 2 but for CHina it will feel like a crash.
Yogesh… Support for Silver comes into play at $27. (see silver support post)
I haven’t forgotten or overlooked you or anyone Yogesh…I have a pile of 900+ emails to sort through. Hope you understand and Thanks,
Great Chart Chris.
With Silver being down almost 40% I would say that would be a crash. Do you still think there is big downside to silver?
On a seperate note, I sent you an email about premium membership but not sure if you got it? Let me know how we can take things forward.
It does look very interesting, especially when you look at IYM and its price which has not moved that much, JJC which looks to be forming a double bottom with MACD divergence and FCX which has a similar pattern to IYM. Kind of makes me think if this breaks to the upside FCX will move quickly.
You got some good eyes! I cant make these patterns out for the life of me on my own.