11 years ago the Crowded/Popular Theme pushed upon us by the media was…”Will computers continue to work after 1/1/2000?” The book cover in the upper left of the chart below pretty much said it all!
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
The above chart reflects that after a major bull market from the 1980’s to 2000 the S&P 500 has traded within a sideways channel since the Y2K story became the crowded theme of the day. My hero and mentor, Sir John Templeton, used to share…”don’t worry about what you know or whats popular in the news, its already built into the price!”
Did the book/media address these concerns in 2000? What will you do if the NASDAQ 100 falls 75% in the next 3 years? What will you do if the largest ETF in the United States (SPY) makes little to no net progress over the next 11 years?
As we near the end of another year, might it pay to ask what news stories/concerns are a little too popular/crowded at this time? Will we look back a year to 10 years from now and say/laugh…we were sure concerned about (you fill in the blank) and that story/concern never came true or we sure didn’t see that one coming!!!
A good friend of mine puts it this way…”its never the bullet you see that kills you!”
Will the European concerns come true or are they overblown? Will the Dollar become a worthless piece of paper? Will the excess debt bring the world down? Will “Buy, Hold & Hope” be flat for another 10 years or be the talk of the town? Will Gold (GLD, which is the largest ETF in the States at this time) be the best investment over the upcoming years?
As an FYI-My crystal ball fell off the table years ago and broke into a thousand pieces. I don’t know how things will pan out 10 years from now!!!
So understanding this weakness I have, I created the TB&M (Tops, Bottoms and No Middles) strategy over 10 years ago because… I personally stink at making long-term predictions. (see TB&M Strategy info here) The focus/goal of this strategy is to find key reversal and exhaustion points, by using the Power of the Pattern. As a reminder, I am not a Bull nor a Bear, just attempting to enlarge portfolios regardless of market direction by using the “Power of the Pattern.”
Before the year ends and gets too crazy I want to take a moment and say “Thank You” for viewing my blog and putting up with my daily noise. In the big picture this blog is not big, yet I remain deeply honored that on average and during a months time, 40,000+ people globally take a few moments from their daily life to look at the charts, which attempt to create a little value for each of you and just maybe….might put the smallest of grins on your face along the way.
Best wishes to each of you and may 2012 be the very best to you and your loved ones! Chris
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you and yours Chris.
PoP tels it like it is and thank you for all the excellent correlations throughout the years.
Chris, thanks so much got all of your great work. I am grateful this year for having found you.
Happy Holidays.
Don
P.S. I think this is actually the 12th anniversary of Y2K–no big deal.
my respect and big thank you for your work , Merry Christmas!
Thank you Chris for a wonderful year you have given us. You have provided wise strategies and hope you continue to do the same and bring 2012 another prosperous year for all of your members and non-members.
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you and yours.
thank you very much!
Hi Chris!..Merry Christmas!
See you later
Ciaoooooooo 🙂
Happy Holidays to you and yours. Many thanks for your efforts and time.
Happy Holidays Chris, Thank YOU for taking the time, effort, and energy to share your words and wisdom. Best wishes to you and your lovely family.
Thank you and I wish you and your family peace and happiness.
Your work is astounding. The lessons I have learned are treasured.
Regards, Bjorn
Joyeux Noel et tous mes voeux pour la Nouvelle Année 2012, cher Monsieur Kimble!
You are a great chart technician. All my respect to you.
Sincerely,
Mickette
Merry Christmas! Thanks for outstanding work.
I also want to add my thanks and best wishes to you and yours for the holiday season.
I am very happy that I discovered this blog last fall, when it was starting. I don’t ‘do’ financial blogs – just this one! It got me hooked – it’s always interesting and useful, and when you write it makes me think I (sort of) understand it. And profitable, of course! I’m grateful that you offer so much for ‘non-paying’ viewers.
Chris: your no-nonsense blog has changed my (investing) life. At last I begin to see the Big Picture and can make decisions accordingly. Although I do look (briefly) at other blogs, if I was only allowed to visit one, yours would be it. Thank you, sir, and a very Merry Christmas to you and your family.
Happy Holidays Chris. Please keep up the great work. Your insights are invaluable as we all try to navigate this tricky market. Thanks for taking the time. You are earning some major Karma points….Onward into 2012.
Chris,
Thanks for all of your efforts.
Merry Christmas and a happy, healthy and prosperous 2012.
Happy Holidays Chris, and thank you so much for sharing your knowledge with us. It has really helped me learn. I always look forward to your posts.
As a newbie I find your commentary extremely helpful so keep up your so-called “rambling” please 🙂
Greg…Thank you for taking the time to share your kind words and your viewership.
A great friend of mine that has put up with my noise since the late 1990’s calls the “Power of the Pattern” his 28-second advantage. He says he can see in 28 seconds or less, what he should do and why.
I am of the beleif the patterns should do the talking not me…so with this thought in mind, I owe each of you an apology for the times I ramble on and detract from the key message of the charts.
Thanks again Greg, I am humbled by your kind words. All the best to you going forward, Chris
Chris,
A big THANK YOU for your wonderful presentations that I can wrap my head around very quickly. Keeping it straighforward and simple takes much work, and I appreciate that and have become a big fan. It has also been an incredible learning tool for me as well. Here’s to a wonderful holiday season, and even a better year to come. Keep up the great work!