11 years ago the Crowded/Popular Theme pushed upon us by the media was…”Will computers continue to work after 1/1/2000?” The book cover in the upper left of the chart below pretty much said it all!
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The above chart reflects that after a major bull market from the 1980’s to 2000 the S&P 500 has traded within a sideways channel since the Y2K story became the crowded theme of the day. My hero and mentor, Sir John Templeton, used to share…”don’t worry about what you know or whats popular in the news, its already built into the price!”
Did the book/media address these concerns in 2000? What will you do if the NASDAQ 100 falls 75% in the next 3 years? What will you do if the largest ETF in the United States (SPY) makes little to no net progress over the next 11 years?
As we near the end of another year, might it pay to ask what news stories/concerns are a little too popular/crowded at this time? Will we look back a year to 10 years from now and say/laugh…we were sure concerned about (you fill in the blank) and that story/concern never came true or we sure didn’t see that one coming!!!
A good friend of mine puts it this way…”its never the bullet you see that kills you!”
Will the European concerns come true or are they overblown? Will the Dollar become a worthless piece of paper? Will the excess debt bring the world down? Will “Buy, Hold & Hope” be flat for another 10 years or be the talk of the town? Will Gold (GLD, which is the largest ETF in the States at this time) be the best investment over the upcoming years?
As an FYI-My crystal ball fell off the table years ago and broke into a thousand pieces. I don’t know how things will pan out 10 years from now!!!
So understanding this weakness I have, I created the TB&M (Tops, Bottoms and No Middles) strategy over 10 years ago because… I personally stink at making long-term predictions. (see TB&M Strategy info here) The focus/goal of this strategy is to find key reversal and exhaustion points, by using the Power of the Pattern. As a reminder, I am not a Bull nor a Bear, just attempting to enlarge portfolios regardless of market direction by using the “Power of the Pattern.”
Before the year ends and gets too crazy I want to take a moment and say “Thank You” for viewing my blog and putting up with my daily noise. In the big picture this blog is not big, yet I remain deeply honored that on average and during a months time, 40,000+ people globally take a few moments from their daily life to look at the charts, which attempt to create a little value for each of you and just maybe….might put the smallest of grins on your face along the way.
Best wishes to each of you and may 2012 be the very best to you and your loved ones! Chris