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The past 90 days hasn’t been favorable to the price of longer dated Government bonds and notes, as the popular Govt. bond ETF (TLT) is down over 10% since Christmas. Many an article has been written that the bull market in government bonds is at hand.
For the decline in bonds prices to continue, the yield on the 30-year bond has to break above a 14-year resistance line at (1), just to climb back into its long-term falling channel!
As always, your chart’s amusing, clear, and helpful. Thanks! (You could say this chart “hits the spot”… I’m not saying anyone SHOULD say that, only that they COULD say that…)
Didn’t you mean to say in your text on the blog page that “…the **END** of the bull market in government bonds is at hand…”?
Jeff Hook, NJ, USA
Hi Chris, long time no talk. Still following your blog since I was let go from Merck 6 months ago. Takin a year off to chill! :o)
so with respect to this long bond bull market, wouldn’t the yield have to break through the top channel resistance to call the30 yr bbull market over? :o)