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Its been a good year for bonds in just six months! Popular bond ETF TLT was up as much as 12% at the start of this month. Most investors would be happy to make 12% in a year owning government bonds.
Is the six month rally in bonds over? In my humble opinion its way too soon to answer this question. The above chart does reflect that the yield on the 10-year note and 30-year bond are attempting to break above resistance of the falling channel that has been created since the first of this year.
These charts are both “weekly” so we will know more by the end of this week if a breakout in yields has taken place. A breakout doesn’t suggest the bond bull move is over, yet it would suggest the big decline in yields might need a breather for a while!