When one looks at the yields on very short term U.S. Government debt, yields on the 2 & 5-year notes are up a big percentage over the past three years.

Since 2011, the yield on the 2-year note is up over 200% (.17% to .56%) and the yield on the 5-year note is up over 100%. No doubt the actual rate remains very low on a historical basis. 

The point of the two charts above is NOT the percentage increase in short-term yields we have seen over the past three years. The focus is to see if interest rate trends on a short term basis are changing and could they impact longer term rates?

 The 2-year yield looks to be making an attempt to breakout of a falling channel at (1) and the yield on the 5-year note is at falling resistance and could be creating a bullish ascending triangle pattern.

New trends start from somewhere….I am watching to see if a trend change in short term rates will spill over into the longer end of the yield curve.

How The Recent Decline In Stocks Looks "Eerily" Like Major Bear Markets Of The Past