performance10yryldspycatchupoct14

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In April, 100% of economists thought interest rates would rise (see here), How is that prediction working out? Joe Friday felt differently, just 90 days ago he thought interest rates would decline another 20%. (see here)  

A common theme this year has been….Yields and Stocks have detached, yields are way out of touch. The above chart reflects that the yield on the 10-year note has declined 23% year to date, while stocks are up 2%. 

Are stocks about to play a game of “catch up” with yields? The chart below reflects that the yield on the 10-year note is at a very key technical price point!

10yryldtriplesupportallaboutmeoct14

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The yield on the 10-year note finds itself at triple support and its 38% Fibonacci retracement level at the same time. What happens to yields here could have a profound impact on stocks, in either direction.

IMHO, “it’s all about what yields do going forward!” 

How The Recent Decline In Stocks Looks "Eerily" Like Major Bear Markets Of The Past