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Yesterday I ask my friend Josh Brown of The Reformed Broker what his take on the chart above was and he shared – “people act like everything is so extraordinary now” and that the chart reminded him of the Tom Jones mega-hit “It’s Not Unusual” (See 1965 Video Here).
I am totally with Josh on his thoughts! Chatter is every where about how strong the U.S. Dollar is and the opposite, how weak the Euro is too. The facts are – the U.S. Dollar and Euro are stuck inside of 6-year trading range, with each at the same price as they were back in 2008!
Could “It’s not unusual” apply to sentiment as well? Current Sentiment figures from Sentiment Trader look like this – Dollar bulls (85%) & Euro Bulls (20%), which are both back at 2008 levels too!
What would be unusual? A break from this 6-year sideways trading pattern, with sentiment at these extremes. Should support & resistance hold, commodities trends could change!
Remember this for a moment, in large extended moves, bulls & bears are often correct for a period of time.
Speaking again of “unusual,” should the U.S. Dollar break resistance and the Euro break support, I suspect many investors will find the need to make some unusual portfolio construction adjustments!
Humbly, I believe what the U.S. Dollar and Euro do in the near future will have very large impacts on portfolio construction!
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