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One year ago this month the yield on the 10-year note had just underwent the strongest 18-month rally in 30-years. This rally was off the charts rare, as the prior seven strongest 18-month rallies were just half this size, taking it to the stop of channel (A) in the chart above! (see post here)
At the same time yields were hitting resistance (A), 100% of economist were saying that rates would rise going forward. (See post here) Telling investors rates would go up after the strongest 18-month rally in 30-years was like shutting the barn door after the horses got out!
Unless you live under a rock, you are well aware that rates have NOT risen this year, they have actually fallen hard, taking the yield on the 10-year note to the bottom of this rising channel (A). The sharp decline in yields this year, now has the 10-year yield back at the bottom of its rising channel, where three support points have come together and again, 100% of economist think rates will rise!
Stocks and yields have went different directions so far this year, its a different story when you look at yields and commodities, as both are tanking together.
In my humble opinion this is a BIG DEAL, because what the 10-year yield does at (1) in the above chart, could have a profound impact on stocks, bonds and commodity prices going forward!
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