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The Staples/Discretionary ratio has been in a steady downtrend since 2009, which reflects investors have been comfortable with risk, pushing more money towards discretionary holdings (risk on trade). A falling resistance line has been in play for the past few years, until recently.
Of late the ratio is breaking above resistance, reflecting that money flows now are turning towards Staples (risk off trade).
Back in 2007 the ratio started heading sharply higher, when it did, the risk off trade was the place to be.
At this time the ratio is NOT looking like a “hockey stick pattern” as it did back in 2007. If it starts turning sharply higher and the S&P 500 breaks weekly support line (1), it would appear that the risk off trade is on.
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