At what point does the rise in treasury yields (and interest rates) matter to the economy and stock market? Today’s chart looks at the past 4 decades of the 2-year treasury note yield versus the stock market (the Dow Jones Industrial Average).

As you can see in the chart below, the 2 year treasury yield has been in a downtrend for quite some time (1). A steep rally in 2-year rates has yields testing this down trend line right now. The past 2 times the downtrend line was tested were in 2000 and 2007 – both resulted in bear markets!

It’s also notable that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing upside resistance within its long-term uptrend channel (2)… it did this in 2000 and 2007 as well. You don’t see stocks and yields testing mult-decade lines at the same time very often!

2 Year Treasury Bond Yield vs Dow Jones Industrials Chart


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