Are interest rates near a short-term low? Possible!
This chart looks at the Yield on the 10-year note (TNX) over the past 15-years. The lower part of the chart measures the 35-week performance of TNX.
Five different times over the past 10-years, yields have declined around 35% in 35-weeks at each (1). Yields were closer to short-term lows than highs when this large of a decline took place at each (1).
Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am; Yields are testing 2017 lows at this time, after a 35% decline in the past 35-weeks. Over the past 10-years, yields were closer to short-term lows when these conditions were in play.
A very important support test is currently in play at the 2% level. If this support fails to hold after such a large decline, bonds are suggesting the odds of an economic slowdown is high.