This afternoon the Fed will announce if they are going to lower interest rates. Does the bond market already have a rate decrease priced into the market? Possible!
This chart looks at the yield on the 10-year note over the past 20-years. Without a doubt, the long-term trend of lower highs remains in play.
Rates have declined over 35% since hitting 20-year falling resistance, that came into play in October of 2018.
The decline has rates testing rising channel support and the 2017 lows this week at (1). While dual support is being tested, weekly momentum is hitting the lowest level in the past 8-years!
If the Fed lowers interest rates today, is it possible that rates are actually ahead of the Fed, which puts them near short-term lows? Yes
Keep a close eye on what yields do this week as they could send a very important price message about where rates are headed in the short-term.