Will the Fed lower interest rates today? They could if they follow the yield on the 10-year note over the past 32-weeks!
This chart reflects that the yield on the 10-year note (TNX) has declined 31% in the past 32-weeks. This decline has yields testing 2017 lows while it tests the bottom of a steep falling channel.
Over the past 15-years when rates have declined over 30% in 32-weeks, rates were actually closer to short-term lows than highs. Will it be different this time?
If yields would happen to be hitting short-term lows on this Fed decision day, they would be suggesting that bonds are near short-term highs.
How TNX handles the support test at the 2.05% level will send an important message about the state of the economy. Keep an eye on this important level over the next few weeks!